A 25% tariff on Canadian imports would undermine America's industrial competitiveness by increasing costs for U.S. aluminum users of Canadian aluminum by $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year, Alcoa CEO William Oplinger says. Canada is the U.S.'s largest supplier of aluminum from smelters. President Trump has indicated he's considering levying 25% duty on imports from Canada. Alcoa operates two aluminum smelters in Canada and is a partner in a third one. Oplinger says if there is a 25% tariff, the company would shift its aluminum shipments to Europe, leaving U.S. aluminum customers more reliant on aluminum from the Middle East and India which are subject to just a 10% U.S. duty. "Literally, you'd see ships passing in the Atlantic carrying the exact same product back and forth," Oplinger says. "It doesn't make a lot of sense."

The Swiss market closed on a firm note on Wednesday with several stocks turning in a fine performance amid optimism about further monetary easing by central banks. The benchmark SMI, which held firm right through the day's session, closed with a gain of 96.73 points or 0.8% at 12,207.89. ABB climbed 3.72% and Sonova gained 3.11%. Partners Group closed higher by 2.3%, while VAT Group, Alcon and Lonza Group gained 1.8 to 2%. Swiss Re, Richemont, Roche Holding and Straumann Holding closed higher by 1.3 to 1.5%, while Zurich Insurance Group, Holcim, Swiss Life Holding, Sandoz Group, Julius Baer and Sika gained 0.6 to 1%. Novartis ended modestly higher. Shares chocolate and cocoa products maker Barry Callebaut tumbled 8% after the company lowered its sales volume guidance for fiscal 2025. The company reported a rise in sales revenue at 3.45 billion francs in the first quarter, up from 2.24 billion francs in the year-ago quarter. Swisscom ended down 1.65%, Lindt & Spruengli closed lower by 1.26%, and Kuehne + Nagel lost 1.06%. Geberit, SIG Group, Nestle and Swatch Group also closed notably lower.

Europe
European stocks closed broadly higher on Wednesday, and several markets in the region posted record highs, reacting to some upbeat earnings updates and on optimism about interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a few other central banks, including the ECB, this year. The pan European Stoxx 600 gained 0.39%. Germany's DAX climbed 1.01%, with Adidas' upbeat results contributing significantly to the rise. France's CAC 40 gained 0.86%, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 edged down 0.04%. Switzerland's SMI closed stronger by 0.8%. Among other markets in Europe, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Russia, Sweden and Turkiye closed higher. Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain ended weak, while Netherlands settled flat. In the UK market, Intermediate Capital climbed about 6.5%. The company reported assets under management or AUM of $106.571 billion at constant currency as on the third quarter ended December 31, 2024. That was up 27.5% higher than the previous year. AUM increased 5.1% from the last quarter. Halma, Entain and Aviva gained 3.4 to 4.3%. Smiths, Diploma, Scottish Mortgage, Intercontinental Hotels, Rolls-Royce Holdings and Spirax-Sarco Engineering gained 1.5 to 2%. 3i, Compass Group, Beazley, Next, Haleon, Lloyds Banking, Tesco and Schrodders also closed notably higher. EasyJet closed down 4.8% despite the airline company reporting narrower pre-tax loss for the first quarter. For the three-month period to December 31, 2024, the company recorded a headline pre-tax loss of 61 million pounds, lesser than a loss of 126 million pounds, reported for the same period last year. Vistry Group, United Utilities, Croda International, Auto Trader Group, Coca-Cola, Vodafone, Severn Trent, Centrica and Anglo American Plc lost 1.5 to 2.7%.

United States
U.S. stocks closed on a firm note on Wednesday as investors reacted positively to some upbeat earnings updates and corporate news, and on continued optimism about a few interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Worries about tariff threats lingered but investors largely shrugged off concerns and kept picking up stocks. The major averages all closed on a strong note, with the tech-laden Nasdaq recording a more pronounced gain thanks to buoyant earnings and sales guidance by Netflix, and Trump's AI initiative. The Dow closed up 130.92 points or 0.3 percent, at 44,156.73. The S&P 500 gained 37.13 points or 0.61 percent, settling at 6,086.37, while the Nasdaq climbed 252.56 points or 1.28 percent, to 20,009.34. Trump's announcement of a $500 billion private-sector AI infrastructure investment plan from a venture involving Oracle, Open AI and Softbank set the stage for tech stocks's strong performance. Oracle Corp shares surged nearly 7 percent, NVIDIA climbed about 4.2 percent, Microsoft gained nearly 4 percent and Meta Platforms closed up by about 2.7 percent. Netflix soared nearly 10 percent, after the company reported an addition of 19 million subscribers in the fourth quarter, the biggest ever subscriber gains in any quarter. Netflix's bottom line came in at $1.869 billion, or $4.27 per share in the fourth quarter, compared with $938 million, or $2.11 per share, last year. Among other prominent gainers in the session, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Procter & Gamble, Salesforce, Cisco Systems, American Express, Analog Devices and Nike advanced 1 to 2 percent. Pfizer, Booking Holdings, Morgan Stanley, Merck, Chevron Corporation, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla and Exxon Mobil Corporation closed notably lower.

Asia
The East Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday. The index in Shanghai (+0.8%) is up, while Hong Kong is little changed. A support signal from Beijing is providing a slight boost. The government is encouraging state insurers to channel capital into the stock market. As part of a pilot programme, around 50 billion yuan – the equivalent of almost 7 billion euros - is to be invested before the Chinese New Year next week.

Bonds
Yields rose on the US bond market following the recent falls. The yield on ten-year paper rose by 2.6 basis points to 4.60 per cent.

Analysis
UBS raises Aviva to 675 (590) GBp – Buy
UBS lowers Vodafone to 68.50 (70) GBp – Neutral
Citi lowers Voestalpine to EUR 20 (21.50) – Neutral

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