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ASML Narrows Guidance Amid Tariff Uncertainty, Warns On 2026 Growth

By Thomas BIANCATO
Published on Wed, 16.Jul.2025

Topic of the day

ASML Holding narrowed its financial targets for the year amid increasing uncertainty from President Trump’s tariffs and said it could no longer guarantee 2026 would be a growth year. The warning from the Dutch supplier of chip-making equipment comes days after President Trump sent a letter to the European Union threatening 30% tariffs on imports from the bloc beginning Aug. 1 as trade talks between Brussels and Washington continue. The chip industry has been seeking clarity for months as the Trump administration conducts an investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 that could result in specific tariffs for semiconductors. ASML sells chip-making machinery to U.S. clients like Intel. “We continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments,” Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said in a statement. “Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.” Fouquet’s remarks come three months after he said that 2025 and 2026 would be growth years based on conversations ASML had with customers.

Swiss stocks

Despite spending much of the day's trading session in positive territory, the Swiss market ended on a weak note on Tuesday as fears of a trade war rendered the mood a bit bearish. In addition to following the developments on the trade front, investors also digested eurozone industrial production data, and U.S. consumer price inflation report. The benchmark SMI ended down 38.57 points or 0.32% at 11,901.32, after scaling a low of 11,878.89 and a high of 11,979.69 intraday. Alcon, Roche Holding, Nestle, Swisscom and Zurich Insurance lost 0.7 to 1.2%. Schindler Ps, Givaudan, Swiss Life Holding and Novartis closed modestly lower. VAT Group rallied nearly 3%. Amrize climbed about 1.65%, ABB advanced 1.35% and Adecco gained 1.11%. Sandoz Group, Logitech International, Straumann Holding, Richemont, Julius Baer and Lindt & Spruengli posted modest gains. DocMorris shares gained about 2.7% after the company obtained an extension in product approval for its CardLink solution until January 2027 from gematik, Germany's national agency for digital medicine. Eurozone industrial production recovered in May, underpinned by strong rebound in non-durable consumer goods output, data from Eurostat showed. Industrial output grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 1.7% on a monthly basis in May, in contrast to the 2.2% decrease in April. Economists had forecast a 0.6% rise.

International markets

Europe
European stocks closed lower on Tuesday, extending recent losses, despite some optimism about the European Union striking a trade deal with the U.S. in the coming weeks. Data showing an acceleration in U.S. inflation in the month of June hurt sentiment. Investors largely made cautious moves while assessing ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and EU, and reacting to the latest set of economic data from the region. Data showing a steady pace of growth in China aided sentiment, but U.S. inflation report weighed. The pan European Stoxx 600 closed down 0.37%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 ended 0.66% down, Germany's DAX fell 0.42% and France's CAC 40 drifted down 0.54%. Switzerland's SMI settled lower by 0.32%. Among other markets in Europe, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Poland, Spain and Turkiye closed weak. Greece, Iceland, Netherlands and Russia ended higher, while Czech Republic, Ireland, Portugal and Sweden closed flat. In the UK market, Barratt Redrow tanked 9.4% after the housebuilder missed its own sales guidance in the year to the end of June. Retailer B&M European Value Retail fell more than 6% after the company's first-quarter sales missed forecasts.

United States
Stocks moved mostly higher early in the session on Tuesday but gave back ground over the course of the trading day. The major averages pulled back well off their highs of the session before eventually closing mixed. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 37.47 points or 0.2 percent to a new record closing high of 20,677.80, the S&P 500 fell 24.80 points or 0.4 percent to 6,243.76 and the Dow slumped 436.36 points or 1.0 percent to 44,023.29. The uptick by the Nasdaq came amid strength in the semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 1.3 percent gain posted by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The index ended the session at its best closing level in a year. Of the three major US banks that reported figures on Tuesday, only JP Morgan impressed, while the quarterly reports from Wells Fargo and Citigroup contained both positives and negatives. Nvidia (NVDA) helped lead the sector higher, with the AI darling surging by 4.0 percent to a record closing high after indicating it will 'soon' resume H20 AI chip sales to China. 'The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon,' the company said in a statement. On the other hand, housing stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the session, resulting in a 3.3 percent plunge by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. Oil service stocks also slumped amid a decrease by the price of crude oil, dragging the Philadelphia Oil Service Index down by 3.1 percent. Banking, pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks also saw considerable weakness, contributing to the pullback by the broader markets. Earlier in the day, stocks responded positively to a Labor Department report showing consumer prices in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of June. The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.3 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May. The annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 2.7 percent in June from 2.4 percent in July.

Asia
Negative cues from Wall Street are causing a mixed trend on the stock markets in East Asia and Australia in the middle of the week. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by a further 0.3 per cent. The previous day, the index had recorded its biggest daily gain in two months.

Bonds
In the U.S. bond market, treasuries saw considerable weakness following the inflation data. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped 6.2 basis points to a one-month closing high of 4.489 percent.

Analysis
Barclays raises ING to Overweight (Equalweight) – Target EUR 24 (18.40)
Barclays lowers L'Oreal to Underweight (Overweight) – Target EUR 325 (384)
Deutsche Bank lowers Ubisoft target to EUR 10 (10.50) – Hold

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