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Nvidia’s Business Is Booming Despite Being Shut Out of China

By Thomas BIANCATO
Published on Fri, 30.May.2025

Topic of the day

Nvidia’s (+3.2%) business is still booming - even with the company effectively shut out of one of the world’s largest markets for advanced artificial-intelligence chips. The chip titan has been on a roller-coaster over the past few months after the Trump administration moved to limit sales of chips to the Chinese market and then cleared the way for multibillion-dollar deals for processors in the Middle East. Nvidia, which has emerged as one of the world’s most-valuable companies because its chips provide the computing power needed in a global AI arms race, posted another quarter of record-breaking sales on Wednesday. Revenue reached $44.06 billion for its fiscal first quarter, a 69% increase that was curtailed by Washington’s new limits on China chip sales. The company was unable to ship $2.5 billion of its H20 processors and projected $8 billion in lost revenue for the current quarter due to the policy. Nvidia’s longer-term outlook in China remains a major question mark. The company admitted on Wednesday that it has “limited options” at the moment for selling its chips there, as the latest ban shuts out even the two-year-old lineup of Hopper systems. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang warned Wednesday that limiting the ability to sell into China could have long-term implications for the industry.

Swiss stocks

On Wednesday, the SMI lost 1.1 per cent to 12,187 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 19 losers and one winner. A total of 14.56 (previously: 13.54) million shares were traded. The losses were widely spread. Only Geberit closed up 0.3 per cent after optimistic association statements. Following the previous day's watch export data, Richemont lost 2.4 per cent and Swatch 1.2 per cent outside the SMI. Cantor Fitzgerald is buying the O'Connor investment platform from UBS (-0.9%). Lonza (-1.1%) also fell, despite favourable analyst comments. Among the small caps, Belimo shed 1 per cent. Ascom (+4.1%) signalled the start of the announced share buyback. Dottikon ES returned to its growth path and also impressed beyond that, with the share price jumping 16.8 per cent.

International markets

Europe
The European stock markets ended trading on Thursday with slight losses. The DAX shed 0.4 per cent to 23,933 points after reaching a high for the day of 24,255 points. The Euro-Stoxx-50 fell by 0.1 per cent to 5,371 points. The stock exchanges in Finland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland were closed for the Ascension Day holiday. Following the Nvidia figures, Infineon was a price gainer in the DAX with a plus of 0.7 per cent. In addition, in the chip sector ASML climbed by 0.7 per cent, Aixtron by 0.9 per cent and Suss Microtec by 2.1 per cent among small caps. The DAX heavyweight SAP dropped 0.3 per cent after interim slight gains. Good quarterly figures from competitor Salesforce and slightly higher forecasts provided only limited support. Vonovia slipped by 2.1 per cent. However, this was due to the dividend discount.

United States
Wall Street took the latest tariff news with a grain of salt on Thursday. Investors reacted with an initial burst of optimism late Wednesday when a federal trade court struck down President Trump’s most sweeping tariffs. By Thursday afternoon, stocks had pared gains. Then an appeals court stayed the earlier decision while it considers the administration’s challenge to it. Tech stocks and the Nasdaq Composite got a boost from Nvidia’s strong earnings, which pushed the chip giant’s shares 3.2% higher. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both ended the day 0.4% higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 0.3%, or 117 points. Wednesday’s ruling by a previously obscure court suprised investors and sent many scrambling to figure out how much of a brake courts could apply to the Trump administration’s increased tariffs. The U.K. and China, which have both reached agreements with the U.S., were quick to react. Beijing hailed Wednesday’s ruling, saying Washington should “heed rational voices” and scrap “misguided unilateral tariffs.”London, which secured the outline of a trade deal this month, indicated it would take a wait-and-see approach. Economists had struck a cautious note, saying the administration could prevail on appeal. They also noted the ruling doesn’t cover all of Trump’s tariffs, including current or planned duties on products such as steel, aluminum, and chips. Analysts speculated the administration could deploy alternative legal measures. Bitcoin prices gave up earlier gains to trade at about $106,000. Vice President JD Vance pledged Wednesday the administration would press ahead with crypto-friendly policies. The deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), favoured by the US Federal Reserve as a measure of inflation, rose by 3.6 percent following an increase of 2.4 percent in the previous quarter. Salesforce.com presented better-than-expected figures and raised its earnings targets. However, the share price fell by 3.3 per cent. RBC has downgraded Salesforce to ‘Sector Perform’. HP slumped by 8.3 per cent after the company lowered its annual forecasts. Boeing shares (+3.3 per cent) climbed to their highest level in 15 months. CEO Kelly Ortberg indicated that deliveries of aircraft to China are expected to resume in June and that the company is approaching a production rate of 38 737-Max aircraft per month.

Asia
The joy on the East Asian stock markets over the court ruling in the U.S. against President Trump's tariff plans evaporated again on Friday. Disillusionment is now spreading and shares are being sold off again after the Trump administration succeeded with its immediate appeal of the judgement and the tariffs may be maintained, at least for the time being. In Tokyo, the Nikkei-225 lost 1.4 per cent to 37,875 points, relinquishing virtually all of its gains from the previous day, also weighed down by the strengthening yen. In Seoul, the index fell by 0.7 per cent. On the Chinese markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong, the indices declined by 0.3 and 1.4 per cent respectively. Among the individual stocks under pressure throughout the region are the major winners from the previous day. These include car stocks and shares of chip manufacturers.

Bonds
U.S. government debt yields tumbled on Thursday following fresh U.S. indicators. The 10-year Treasury note yield eased by 5 basis points (0.05 percentage point) to 4.43%. The 2-year Treasury note yield shed 5 basis points to 3.95%.

Analysis
Target price Helvetia: Vontobel increases to CHF 213 (182) - Buy
Target price Georg Fischer: Octavian upgrades to CHF 57 (56) - Hold
Target price Sonova: ODDO BHF SCA lowers to CHF 250 (260) - Neutral

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