American Express turned in solid quarterly results Friday, increased its dividend, and highlighted record levels of card member spending. However, investors seemed to be shrug off the positives, sending shares down 1.4% to $321.34 in trading Friday. For 2025, the credit-card company, which generally has an affluent customer base, said it expects revenue growth of between 8% and 10% and earnings per share between $15 and $15.50. Analysts forecast earnings of $15.24. Total revenue net of interest expense was $17.18 billon, slightly above the consensus estimate of $17.16 billion. Billed business - a metric that represents Amex cardholder spending - increased 8% from a year ago. Within the travel and entertainment segment, spending on airlines jumped 13%. American Express also said it would increase its quarterly dividend by 17% to 82 cents a share. Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec offered insight on how the company was making strides with millennials and Gen Z customers. “We evolved the value proposition to resonate more with the younger customers,” through adding benefits around streaming and restaurants, Le Caillec told Barron’s in an interview. “That’s definitely something working really well for us, and we’re going to double down on that,” he added. Credit card peers were little moved on Friday. Visa rose 0.2%, Mastercard gained 0.3%, Capital One Financial dropped 0.4%, and Discover Financial Services dipped 0.3%.

The Swiss stock market performed well heading into the weekend. The SMI gained 0.2 per cent to 12,287 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were ten price gainers and nine price losers, with Novartis shares closing unchanged. A total of 20.68 (previously: 17.06) million shares were traded. Givaudan fell by 3.1 per cent, making it the weakest stock in the SMI. The fragrance and flavouring manufacturer had not been convincing in all respects with its figures for the past year. Although sales rose more strongly than expected, net profit fell short of analysts' consensus estimates. Strong business figures from British luxury goods manufacturer Burberry also boosted Swiss shares in the sector. Richemont gained 0.9 per cent and Swatch 1 per cent. Richemont had recently presented surprisingly good figures, fuelling hopes of a recovery in the currently struggling sector. However, investors also picked up some economic cyclicals. ABB rose by 0.8 per cent, Holcim by 1.6 per cent and Sika by 1.3 per cent. Defensive stocks such as the heavyweight Nestlé (-0.03 per cent) and Swisscom (-0.3 per cent) were not in demand. Swiss Steel plunged by 39 per cent. The company intends to delist from the stock exchange.

Europe
The European stock markets closed slightly lower on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600 index shed 0.1% to 530.1 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and SBF 120 gained 0.4% each. The DAX 40 gave up 0.1% in Frankfurt on Friday and the FTSE 100 was down 0.7% in London. Burberry (+9.8% in London) reported better-than-expected sales for the three months to the end of December. These lower-than-expected sales benefited its competitors. In Paris, Kering (+4.5%), LVMH (+1.9%), L'Oréal (+1.1%) and Hermès (+0.9%) stood out, as did Moncler (+3.3%) and Brunello Cucinelli (+1.2%) in Milan and Hugo Boss (+4.1%) in Frankfurt. UBISOFT (+7% at close): the video games publisher is said to have entered into a partnership with Savvy Games Group, owned by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, according to information reported on Friday by Les Echos on the basis of several corroborating sources. APERAM (+0.9%): the stainless steel producer announced on Thursday that it had completed the takeover of US steel products manufacturer Universal Stainless & Alloy Products for $537 million (around €516 million).

United States
On Friday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, while the Nasdaq shed 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 140.82 points, or 0.3%. And with markets closed last Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, investors will have to wait until this coming Monday’s close to see where Trump’s opening rally ranks among his predecessors. Many money managers had already been feeling good about the U.S. economy heading into 2025. The domestic labor market has been humming along, with the latest jobs report showing that unemployment ended the year at 4.1%, a historically low figure. And inflation has been steadily falling. A euphoria has swept through the market for cryptocurrencies in particular, with bitcoin prices trading around $105,000 after Trump signed an executive order establishing a working group on digital assets. Shortly after he was sworn in, some of the world’s most prominent names in technology stood next to him and announced half a trillion dollars of investments in artificial-intelligence infrastructure in the U.S., a venture known as Stargate. The move turbocharged one of investors’ favourite themes of the past two years and sent shares of Oracle, Nvidia and Arm sharply higher. Oracle shares rose 14% for the week, while Nvidia jumped 3.6%. Arm shares added 8.9%. Texas Instruments shares decreased by 7.5 per cent on Friday. The chip manufacturer recorded a decline in sales and profits in the fourth quarter, although this was less than analysts had expected. However, the outlook for the current quarter fell short of market expectations. Boeing fell by 1.4 per cent. The aircraft manufacturer expects to have posted a loss of around 4 billion dollars in the fourth quarter of 2024. The company had to contend with a strike, high losses on US government projects and costs for job cuts. Verizon (+0.9%) expects revenues from its mobile business to continue to rise in the new year. In the fourth quarter, higher prices, among other things, contributed to an increase in revenue. Tesla (-1.4%) plans to start delivering a revised version of the Model Y in March. The Model Y Juniper will cost around 25 per cent more than the previous version. The vehicle will also have a longer range. Meanwhile, the car manufacturer has to make improvements to 1.2 million cars in China due to safety problems.

Asia
Upward trends in Shanghai and Hong Kong and moderate losses in Tokyo can be observed at the start of the new week in East Asia. In Seoul and Sydney, South Korea, there will be no trading on Monday due to national holidays. In Seoul, trading will not resume until Friday due to subsequent public holidays. In addition, stock markets in Shanghai will be closed for the rest of the week from Tuesday due to the Chinese New Year, in Hong Kong from Wednesday and in Singapore trading will be shortened on Tuesday and no trading at all on Wednesday and Thursday. The Nikkei index in Tokyo slipped 0.5 per cent to 39,748 points after the interest rate hike on Friday. In Shanghai, the Composite Index increased by 0.3 per cent and the HSI in Hong Kong climbed by 0.7 per cent.

Bonds
U.S. government debt yields slipped on Friday and were little changed for the week, as traders absorbed President Donald Trump’s views on interest rates and China. The 10-year Treasury note yield eased by 2 basis points (0.02 percentage points) to 4.62%. The 2-year Treasury note yield gave up two basis points to 4.28%.

Analysis
Deutsche Bank downgrades Barry Callebaut target to CHF 1,400 (1,900) - Buy
Citi raises Richemont target to CHF 193 (145)/Buy - Trader
Deutsche Bank upgrades Lindt & Sprüngli target to CHF 105,000 (103,000) - Hold
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